Euribor steadies and Madrid still leads Europe in prime

We close June with a market catching its breath after weeks of movement in rates. Euribor has eased, attention shifts to the European Central Bank in July and, beneath the noise, Madrid's prime segment holds a steadiness worth reading with judgement. These are our notes for the week.

Euribor ends June stable; now we wait for the ECB

After the ECB's rate hike on 11 June — which took the deposit facility to 2.25% — the twelve-month Euribor has steadied rather than climbing further: the daily figure sat at around 2.76% at the close on 26 June and the provisional monthly average is near 2.80%, broadly in line with May (data from Rankia and Euríbor Diario, 29 June). It is a measure of relief for variable-rate mortgages. The next reference point is the ECB meeting on 23 July: the debate is no longer whether to raise, but whether there will be a second hike, with eurozone inflation that the bank itself forecasts at around 3% for 2026. For anyone buying with financing, the message is caution and locking in good terms; the cash buyer, as usual, stays clear of this swing.

Madrid leads Europe in prime residential

As the backdrop for the year, the Savills prime residential index (report from early 2026) places Madrid at the top of Europe, alongside Lisbon, with a forecast increase of between 4% and 5.9% for the luxury segment in 2026 — more than triple the 1.3% average estimated for the world's major cities. The reasoning is familiar: solid domestic demand and a growing flow of international buyers drawn by quality of life, safety and the city's dynamism. It is a market estimate, not a settled figure, but it matches what we see deal by deal at the capital's benchmark addresses.

Supply remains the bottleneck

The underlying factor sustaining prices is not speculative, it is structural: Spain carries an estimated shortfall of around 700,000 homes, and demand remains firm. Bankinter's property report points to a further rise of close to 7% on average for housing in 2026, more pronounced in new-build. For the buyer of quality product, this reinforces the value of two things at the heart of our work: access to supply that never reaches the portals, and the judgement not to overpay in a tight market.