Market notes · July 2026

The ECB holds and Madrid leads Europe in prime

6 July 2026 · By Álvaro Ortuño Ros, founder of Horlux

July opens with a calmer tone on monetary policy and prices that remain firm in Madrid. A brief look at what is worth keeping in mind this week if you are considering buying, selling or investing in prime residential property.

The ECB holds; Euribor eases

After raising rates by 25 basis points on 11 June — to 2.25% on the deposit facility — the European Central Bank has softened its tone. In early July, Christine Lagarde ruled out a further hike at the 23 July meeting, judging that the risks to inflation and growth are now "more balanced". Twelve-month Euribor, the benchmark for most Spanish mortgages, has begun July lower, around 2.72% (Euribor.com.es, idealista). For buyers using financing, a rate environment that is stabilising brings back the predictability that was missing a few months ago.

Madrid tops 6,000 €/m²

Second-hand housing in the city of Madrid reached an average of 6,013 €/m² in June, up 6.6% on a year earlier, according to figures published by Idealista. A shortage of quality supply, particularly in the consolidated districts, continues to support prices and shortens selling times for good product.

Madrid at the top of Europe in prime

Savills places Madrid as the European city where luxury housing will rise most in 2026, with estimated growth of between 4% and 5.9% — well above the forecast global average — ahead of other capitals on the continent. In consolidated prime areas, average prices range, according to the consultancy, between 16,000 and 17,000 €/m². These are market estimates rather than closed figures, but they point clearly in one direction: domestic and international capital interest in Madrid is not easing.

Taxation for non-resident buyers: unchanged

It is worth clarifying, as it raises recurring questions among international buyers: the announced levy of up to 100% on home purchases by non-EU, non-resident buyers has still not progressed through Parliament and is not law. The current tax framework for foreign buyers remains in place. Any purchase decision should always rest on tax advice tailored to each individual case.

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